As written in two prior articles, the GBP/USD has begun a new long-term downtrend over the next 3 months. On July 31st, I thought I had seen a point in a short turnaround for a short-term retrace before this begun. The current 1hr downtrend is going further than I thought, though. It has now fully moved to 1.9600. This should be the end of this 1hr downtrend.

Here’s the interesting thing about all of this movement:

The GBP/USD is in a Daily downtrend. In March, the 4hr retraced to go further down and take out 1.9336, but was too weak, and began retracing in May. Now that it has fully retraced, it has begun its trek down again to take out 1.9336. Here are the details around all of this:

In March, the GBP/USD was performing a 4hr retrace to a level of resistance before going further down. In March, I had entered a longer-term sell at 2.0133. It temporarily went against me, but then finally ended a nice 600 pip 4hr trend at the end of May.

At the end of May, the GBP/USD could not take out 1.9336; therefore, the 4hr broke to go up and retrace back to a level of resistance…back to where I originally entered in March. (This was the trade I forecasted on April 26th.)

Now that the GBP/USD has fully retraced again in this Daily downtrend, it is beginning its move back down to target 1.9336 and further.

For any of you reading these posts, I trade on the 1hr while watching the 4hr in conjunction with the Daily. I will let everyone know when I have a signal that this current 1hr downtrend has ended.