4/19/2010 – GBP/USD Trade Ideas
April 19, 2010 3 Comments
The GBP/USD retraced back to the 1.5500 level during last week (April 12th through April 15th). This was a significant target level before the GBP/USD began its move back downward. Now that the GBP/USD has reached that level, it is beginning its move down below 1.4779 over the next one to three months. During this larger move downward, there are many short term trades (five to fifteen days) to be made as the GBP/USD zig-zags downward. As of this writing, the GBP/USD is at 1.5239. In regard to trade ideas:
- Long-term (one to three month trade) – Consider a sell on the GBP/USD to hold as the GBP/USD moves downward below 1.4779.
- Short-term (five to fifteen day trade) – Consider a sell on the GBP/USD.
- If you enter the market now, there’s a potential the GBP/USD could move back up to the 1.5375 level before it continues to move down. (If you entered now, that is a potential of -136 pips it could temporarily move against you.)
- If the GBP/USD continues to move down below 1.5128, then you could safely place a limit sell around 1.5300.
- If the GBP/USD does not immediately take out 1.5128, then you could safely place a limit sell anywhere from 1.5375 to 1.5475
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I wrote this yesterday, and now the Technical Analysts at DailyFX are saying the same thing. http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/gbp-usd/2010-04-20-0609-GBP_USD_Classical_04_20.html
“GBP/USD: Rallies have stalled out just over 1.5500, with the market adhering to the broader downtrend and rolling over in favor of a bearish resumption. Friday’s bearish reversal day has seen good follow through already in the early week, and the risk now is for a test of next key short-term support by 1.5130 over the coming sessions. The 1.5130 level is the key level to watch, with a break here to accelerate declines and re-expose the 2010 lows down by 1.4780. Only back above 1.5525 negates and gives reason for pause.”
Before entering a trade, also keep in mind how much you are willing to risk compared to what the trade will yield. This is always of utmost importance.
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